Vol. 9, Issue 2, 2019

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Feedback Process of a Tsunami Evacuation Plan Using Quantitative Data of Drills for Supporting Vulnerable People in a Community

Nobuhito OHTSU and Akihiko HOKUGO

Abstract: To prepare evacuation plans, including an evacuation support system for vulnerable people such as the elderly, injured, pregnant, or other people requiring support during a tsunami evacuation, validating evacuation drills with respect to real-world circumstances using quantitative data is important. This study aims to clarify the importance of using evacuation drill data for evacuation planning. To this end, we measured the movements of residents during an evacuation drill conducted according to a set plan in a community and verified the observed quantitative data. We have been supporting the drills and community disaster management plan (CDMP) in the Shinyo Community of Kobe City since 2008 and hence selected this community for our study. We measured the residents’ evacuation time and speed using various transportation modes to transport vulnerable people to safety during the drill and verified the evacuation plan’s effectiveness. Quantitative data were verified in the drills and vulnerable people and their supporters, who were measured on this occasion, were evacuated from the tsunami warning area within the estimated tsunami hitting time for Hyogo prefecture of 90 min after the earthquake. Further, using four types of transportation modes—a rollator (wheeled walking aid), transport chair, wheelchair, and cart—yielded conveyance speeds (average of the time taken by a vehicle to traverse the entire evacuation route, excluding wait times at traffic signals) of 1.03, 1.42, 1.50, and 1.27 m/s, respectively. Few days later, the participants provided feedback on the drills in an evaluation meeting and deemed the evacuation plan effective. This study presents a progressive thought process that utilizes the interaction between “planning” and “training” to enable a feasible CDMP to combat disasters.

Key words: Tsunami evacuation plan, Vulnerable people, Drill, Community

P1-P20

Improving Flood Forecasting in Karnali River Basin of Nepal Using Rainfall-Runoff Model and Complementary Error Model

Dilip Kumar Gautam and Sumit Dugar

Abstract: Accuracy of flood forecast is important to take appropriate preparedness measures for saving lives and livelihoods of people residing in the floodplains. Predictions from flood forecasting models are usually uncertain which can be improved by complementing the hydrological model with an error model that can capture the information which the operational hydrological model lacks. This paper presents the application of this approach for improving daily flow forecasts for flood warning in Karnali River Basin of Nepal. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model, TUWmodel has been developed to model the rainfall-runoff processes and to predict the runoff at the outlet of the basin at Chisapani. The model has been calibrated for the period 2008-2011 with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) 0.91 and percent bias (PBIAS) -0.7% and validated for the period 2012-2014 with NSE 0.88 and PBIAS -9.1% using observed temperature, precipitation and discharge data. A complementary ARIMA error model was developed from the error series for calibration set using automatic procedure and the predicted discharges were corrected using the error predictions from the error model. After error corrections, NSE and PBIAS were 0.95 and 0.1% respectively for calibration and 0.92 and 0.1% respectively for validation indicating significant improvements in the skill of forecasts.

Key words: Flood forecasting, error modeling, flood warning, hydrological model, ARIMA

P 21-P48

Learning from Voices in the Field: The Role of Disaster Education in Reducing Vulnerability in Urban and Rural Afghanistan

Marina Hamidzada and Ana Maria Cruz

Abstract: Recent studies have shown that the frequency of natural disasters in the world has been increasing. This trend has had serious consequences for people throughout the world. Many studies have also found that in natural disasters, there is a general tendency that women are at higher risk than men. Several factors increasing the vulnerability of women in disasters have been elucidated. Among these, a lack of disaster education has been identified as a primary factor. This study is a follow up to a previous study carried out by the present authors in January 2017 in rural and urban communities in Afghanistan. In September 2017, a non-profit organization conducted a series of disaster education and risk assessment programs in many parts of Afghanistan, which included communities in both rural and urban areas. The aim of the present study is to understand the effect that the education program had on the two case study communities in Afghanistan. The data was collected by conducting focus group discussions and interviews, and analyzed using grounded theory. We found a positive effect of the disaster education program in the short-term by raising awareness, increasing knowledge and promoting actions. The study confirmed previous findings on disaster education’s role in reducing the vulnerability of women. It also revealed that women can play a very important role at the time of a disaster, and they can be good agents for dissemination of the gained knowledge and information to the whole community. Recommendations include the need for follow-up studies in the near future in order to understand the medium and long-term effects.

Key words: Women’s vulnerability, Afghanistan, Disaster education, Ruraland urban communities

P49-P69

Community Resilience and Crime Prevention: Applying the Community Engagement Theory to the Risk of Crime

Wendy Schreurs, José, H. Kerstholt, Peter. W. de Vries and Ellen Giebels

Abstract: Citizens are increasingly expected to take a more participatory role in society, which increases the need for them to be knowledgeable about a wide range of uncertain risks and to properly prepare themselves in case these risks become reality. To date, most attention regarding risk preparedness has focused on natural hazards. In the past decade, however, human-made safety risks have gained notoriety in the public’s eye. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the psychological drivers on an individual, community and institutional level of the Community Engagement Theory also apply to the context of social safety hazards such as crime. The study was conducted via an online survey. In total, 1245 Dutch citizens who were already a member of the citizen panel of their municipality at the time of data collection participated in the online study. The results of this research show that the Community Engagement Theory is not only applicable for natural hazards, but also for human-made risks such as crime. Psychological drivers of all three levels, individual, community, and marginally institutional level, are relevant in explaining the willingness to report and intervene when witnessing a crime. This research gives insight and guidance for policy makers and practitioners regarding stimulating reporting and intervening behavior of crime, and citizens information-gathering.

Key words: Crime, Reportingbehavior, Information gathering, Community Engagement Theory

P70-P88